Trade Intelligence Logo

Let’s bask for a while, shall we, in the warm red glow of Shoprite’s interim results for the 26 weeks through 1 January. Turnover up +16.8% to R106.4bn, with R15.3bn in additional sales, trading profit up +8.6% to R6.0bn, depressed somewhat by expenses – particularly related to load shedding – up +17.8% to R21.5bn. Within this, Shoprite and Usave were up +15.1%, Checkers +16.9% and liquor absolutely storming through at +35.6%, albeit off a lowish base. How’d they do that? CEO Pieter Engelbrecht: “Sales growth of this magnitude can only be achieved with expert planning, exceptional teamwork and seamless execution on all fronts.” And with a third and counting of the highly consolidated South African grocery market sewn up, where will the Big Red One go for further growth? They will accelerate the rollout of their new formats, including the standalone outdoor, pet and baby stores, with an apparel offering to launch in April, watch out Mr Price. And what you ask of the shareholders? Where are they to find their meagre crust? DHEPS up +10.2% with a dividend +6.4%, that’s where.

Comment: For more insights on these numbers, have a look at our analysts’ excellent results summary over here. If we have a suggestion, Shoprite might want to up its Usave game to take on PnP’s stellar Boxer brand.

Some more detail on those Woolies interims that we reported on last week: Group turnover and something it insists on calling “concession sales” up +18.5% for the six months through Christmas, with HEPS up just northward of +75% as expected. Fashion, Beauty and Home was the big performer, with turnover up +11.2%, while Food grew only +7.6%, or +5.4% on a like-store basis. Load shedding costs the business around R15m a month, but with 99% of the real estate now covered by generators and renewables, it is at least somewhat cushioned from the worst impacts of load shedding. Moreover, they say, it has exclusive arrangements with the majority of its food suppliers. “This places us in a favourable position to build a holistic, integrated and fully resilient response plan from here,” Woolies points out. The Group also warned that as things settle in Aus, and as South African consumers continue to feel the strain, things might slow down profit-wise in the second half.

Comment: Woolies had us worried for a while back there. But it seems to be turning things around, and rather nicely too.

First up, Massmart’s ongoing how’s-your-father with COSATU is ramping up, with the latter taking it on for the dismissal of 400 staff on the grounds of unlawful conduct during the recent Saccawu strike. COSATU has alleged that Massmart is attempting to liquidate Saccawu; 1,000 Makro staff chose to leave the union to accept the company’s wage offer during the dispute. Next, Happy Birthday to Food Lover’s Market, 30 this week, launched in 1993 as Fruit & Veg City, and now running over 320 stores around the Beloved Country, with plans for a big expansion drive in the near future. Finally, continuing its relentless drive into wellness, Clicks has launched the Supplement Recommender, an online tool that provides personalised supplement recommendations to support optimal health and well-being. Developed by a team of nutritionists and dieticians, the tool identifies health, lifestyle and behavioural factors associated with nutrition and health outcomes to generate supplement recommendations specifically for the individual punter, who might then presumably shop for these in Clicks’ gleaming aisles.

Comment: If they just call it The Recommender it would have quite a nice Marvel comic universe ring to it…

First up, the French government has strong-armed supermarkets into agreeing to a three-month anti-inflation deal, which would allow households to buy certain items at the lowest possible prices, costing the retailers hundreds of millions of revenue in turnover, amidst much Gallic huffing and puffing on both sides. Next, in the US, the Food and Drug Administration is proposing regulations that would see “Product of USA” labels placed only on meat from animals “born, raised, slaughtered and processed in the United States.” Current policy allows such labels on products from animals imported and then slaughtered in the US, and on meat that's been imported and repackaged or further processed. Finally, what on earth’s up in Croatia these days, you ask, and we are here to tell you. Since its acquisition private equity firm Enterprise in 2018, retailer Studenac has itself been on a buying spree, growing from a local player in coastal Dalmatia to a nationwide chain of 1,100 stores, with a 7% share of a highly fragmented market. “We have developed and implemented a unique proximity retail model” says CEO Michał Seńczuk. “We predominantly service a small basket of everyday shopping.”

Comment: Perhaps an interesting model for our own market as it formalises.

Interims from Anglovaal Industries Limited (AVI), which increased Group revenue by +7.2%, for the six months through December, largely on the back of price increases in its tea and coffee, snacks, and fashion businesses, and in the face of muted consumer demand in a fiercely competitive market. Understandably, then, the bottom line was not the deepest shade of black either: operating profit rose by just +1.7%, with load shedding costs of R22m. As an indicator of the demand-side struggles faced by AVI, biscuit volumes fell -1.4% and snacks -5.3% for the period in question, while I&J grew its share of the domestic market share from 47.9% to 51%, albeit on a -7.5% decline in volumes. On the upside, the shoe division incorporating Spitz and Green Cross grew operating profit +13.4% to R413m, on a +5.2% rise in footwear sales volumes. CEO Simon Crutchley says that while AVI will continue its focus on manufacturing efficiencies and innovation, the company might need to “simplify” its business model.

Comment: Although those fancy shoes have really come through for them this year…

A worthy initiative this week from Coca-Cola Beverages South Africa (CCBSA), partnering with the Henley Business School to empower suppliers with a 12-month programme to obtain a Postgraduate Diploma in Management Practice Supplier Development (PDiMPSD), an NQF-8 qualification targeted at suppliers who are at least 51% Black-owned enterprises, exempt micro-enterprises or qualifying small enterprises. “Our plan is to assist our suppliers to upscale their businesses and grow their annual revenue by increasing their customer base,” says CCBSA MD Velaphi Ratshefola. On to Veganuary: great initiative, clunky name. Be this as it may, approximately 38 new plant-based products were released in South Africa this January, slightly less than last year according to ProVeg South Africa, the local NGO partner for Veganuary. The Bacchanalia of Brussels Sprouts, Beans and Broccoli has been celebrated for ten years now, cheered on this year by smaller manufacturers like Güdness Plant Based Deli, Infinite Foods, Outcast Foods, Simply Delish, Urban Vegan, OKJA, Red Espresso, Pesto Princess, Buttanutt, and On The Green Side, all of whom launched new products or specials to help South Africans think differently about eating.

Comment: Good for business, good for people, good for dear old Mother Earth. We’re big fans.

The economists had called for a -0.4% contraction in the economy for the fourth quarter. Being economists, they still have their job, despite being well over 100% wrong about that; the real decline was in fact -1.3%. Seven out of the ten sectors measured by StatsSA saw declining outputs quarter on quarter, with agricultural output falling -3.3%, mining -3.2%, finance -2.3%, trade (into which our own great sector falls) -2.1% and manufacturing -0.9%. And while the economy is +0.3% bigger than it was in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic, this expansion was smaller than a +3.5% rise in the population over the same period, thanks to all the COVID babies. If things don’t improve this quarter, we have no need to tell you, recession. And if you can stomach more of this, the rand declined -1.5% on the news landing at R18.5 to the dollar.

Comment: If only we had vast mineral resources to draw on. A talented and willing workforce. Vineyards and mealie fields. A landscape and beaches made for tourism. Oh, wait .... yes, this is pretty much inexcusable.