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Dis-Chem, which is seeing an increase in demand for household cleaning and personal hygiene products such as tissues, wipes, soaps, hand and surface sanitisers and general wellness products, is limiting purchases of any given item to six per customer to prevent stockpiling and unnecessary strain on its supply chain. Pick n Pay has seen an increase in demand for household cleaning and personal hygiene products, and dry groceries, and has seen an increase in online sales over the past two weeks. To meet increased demand for sanitary, hygiene and baby products, dry pasta, UHT milk and tinned vegetables, Shoprite has increased orders and is sourcing new and additional suppliers for scarce product lines, although warehouses currently have sufficient stock to replenish their shelves. Woolies has seen a surge in online orders, and has implemented distancing guidelines to keep both drivers and customers safe.

Comment: The sense of order and the strong messaging coming from the retail community is helping keep all of us a little calmer in these early days. Long may it last.

Last Thursday, Massmart made the difficult call to cease trading at all 23 of its DionWired Stores, and – at the time of going to press – was still deliberating on the details of the closure of its 11 underperforming Masscash stores. Massmart are in discussions with unions on the mitigation of job losses, and on moving affected workers into vacancies at other stores “where practical and reasonable”. In total, 1,440 workers will be affected. DionWired, as you know, has fallen victim to lower spending on consumer electronics in these straitened times, and on the greater variety and advantageous pricing offered by online retail; in the year through December the Massdiscounters division suffered a R674.6m loss, having delivered a R32m profit the previous year.

Comment: A tough call, with a horrible human cost. But DionWired is hardly alone in this – across the globe, similar retailers are falling victim to the same inexorable forces.

Who? you ask, and you’d probably be right. Just remember that you read it here first. Thrive is a tiny wellness emporium with just two stores in KZN at the moment, one a converted Link Pharmacy in Kloof where the brand originated, one a recently-opened non-pharmacy outlet in The Well Centre in Ballito. Founder Lynda Bryant rebranded the pharmacy, which she bought in 2005, on the advice of customers who reported that clinical corporate retail pharmacies were intimidating, and that they were looking for more than a place to fill their prescriptions. Thrive Ballito focuses primarily on integrated wellness, stocking vitamins, supplements as well as natural, organic and locally-sourced food, skin care, gifts and cleaning products. It includes The Juice Kitchen as a store-within-a-store and offers a small clinic for a homeopath and nutritionist to visit on a weekly basis. But the big news for us is that Kevin Hedderwick, ex of Famous Brands, has seen the potential in the endeavour, and has taken a stake, and plans to assist in a national rollout, with the initial focus on KZN.

Comment: Tough time to be starting out. But with our current sharpened focus on wellness, and buoyed by existing global wellness trends, perhaps not.

In the UK, retailers have come together in a rare show of unity (which is like saying the carnivores have come together in a rare show of veganism) to encourage shoppers to stop panic buying, you’ll get your turn, there’s plenty to go around. In the meantime, retailers with online delivery or click & collect services are going gangbusters. As some are doing here, Sainsbury’s, Iceland and Tesco have set up special hours for elderly or vulnerable shoppers, and several have started to implement a three-item rule per shopper. Specialty counters and instore cafés have been closed to maintain hygiene and free up staff for more critical tasks, and stores are being cleaned more frequently. Trading hours have been curtailed to allow for cleaning, and enable retailers to re-stock shelves with items in high demand.

Comment: The British retailers seem to be succeeding with a more unified message and some agreement on the basics – such as purchase limits and opening hours – which keeps the playing field more or less level, to everyone’s benefit.

FMCG manufacturer Libstar, which brings to market such well-known brands as Lancewood cheeses and Denny mushrooms, turned in a tidy set of results last week, with profit up +25.4% to R279.6m for the year through December, on an increase in revenue of +2.4%. This they ascribe (in terms only a supplier could love) to lower dry-condiment input costs, favourable sales mix changes in dairy, value-added groceries, baking products and baking aids, as well as the Group’s continued focus on procurement practices, production efficiencies and overall equipment effectiveness. They have expressed concern that the coronavirus outbreak may affect exporters, for them and their competitors. Speaking of which, Rhodes Food Group has indicated that they’ve seen a spike in the sale of canned goods during the fearful and uncertain month of March 2020. On the downside, they’ve seen a reduction of -11.3% in the sales of canned fruit to China since January.

Comment: As we’ve often observed, the FMCG industry is where the pedal of socio-economic factors first hits the metal of commerce and industry.

Aspen Pharmacare, hanging in there after a very rough couple of years, has indicated that it will adjust production schedules to meet an increased demand in such drugs as antibiotics, which may result from the coronavirus. Aspen has already seen a spike in demand for over-the-counter painkillers and cold and flu medications, but assures worried punters that its production is equal to the task of continuing to provide these essentials. Unrelated, but in the same sector, Adcock Ingram are diversifying out of the highly-regulated pharmaceuticals sector, and accordingly have made a successful offer for Plush Professional Leather Care, a tidy little business which generates over R200m annually.

Comment: Whatever it takes, We’re going to be needing these great, though often embattled, South African businesses in the months and years ahead.

What are the economists saying about the likely impact of the coronavirus on our numbers (and of course on the people and businesses these numbers describe). According to Mike Schussler of economists.co.za, unemployment could peak at over 13 million, as industries from hospitality to garden services, hairdressers, small retailers and informal traders and taxi services gradually shut down or see their activity dramatically curtailed. And Nicky Weimar, chief economist at Nedbank, predicts a decline in GDP of -1% in the first quarter, a massive -7.5% contraction in the second quarter, and a modest recovery in the second half of what is shaping up to be an economic annus horribilis, for an overall decline for the year of -1.6%. And don’t talk to us about the exchange rate.

Comment: Hard times, and more to come. And the only way we’re going to come through this as a nation is together.