Inflation Cooling inflation, but prices still bring the heat
Inflation data for March 2025 came out yesterday, with total CPI at +2.7%, its lowest reported level since Jun 2020 (shew, feels like a lifetime ago). Why so low? Fuel prices are lower than last year (by over R2 per litre for both petrol and diesel) and inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages was contained at +2.7%, due to meat inflation at only +0.4% and milk, eggs and cheese at only +0.6%. There were some highs, though, like hot beverages (tea +13% and coffee +19%) and +13.1% more for maize meal, but the lower inflation in other categories kept the total contained. Looking ahead, and attempting (Ed note. Good try…) to account for unpredictability from the US, inflation forecasts for SA are supported by the lower international oil price expectations. Barring any major geopolitical changes, SA’s credit-active consumers should see some relief, with an interest rate cut, or two, but only later in the year – when and if the tariff-dust settles. In the meantime, however, the price of a household food basket is still increasing, just not as fast as it has been, with data from the PMB ED&J showing it costs over R5,300 per month to feed a family of seven, plus another R1,022 for household and personal care products. Compared to three years ago, that’s +R1,200 more per month (+23%)!
Comment: Moderation is welcome but households remain under pressure at a time when nothing is certain. The US tariff rollercoaster continues, and SA’s +0.5% VAT increase, expected on 1 May, has just been withdrawn by the Finance Minister. You missed our submissions deadline this week, Honourable Godongwana. But for you, we make an exception.