THIS ISSUE: 06 May - 14 May
Welcome to another week in this great but embattled industry we call home. Some good results from Pick n Pay down below, and interesting news from IMPERIAL Logistics and Pioneer. Also some pragmatic words of hope and wisdom, from MTN’s Mcebisi Jonas, and Pioneer’s Tertius Carstens. Enjoy the read.
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Coronavirus Schlumpfy!
As you know, we do not generally concern ourselves with the fripperies of the rag trade. Except, of course, if it pertains to this great industry we call home. And so, this week, to Pick n Pay Clothing, which reports that the dedicated follower of fashion is stocking up on a category called “loungewear and fleece clothing items”. Zoomworthy pyjamas, reading between the lines. Dis-Chem, as reported a couple weeks back, are hotly contesting the charge of price gouging brought against it by the Competition Commission, on the grounds that at the time the retailer and their supplier Babelegi were charging excessively high prices for surgical masks, this was not in fact against the law. And also, that Dis-Chem is not a “dominant business, a precondition for the charge of ‘excessive pricing’”. In Cape Town, Woolies stores in Milner Road, Constantia Village and Hout Bay have closed as a result of COVID-19 among the staff, while the Bayside Mall Checkers super is under fire from staff not allowed back to work after a mandatory 14-day quarantine with no symptoms.
Comment: A fine line, it seems, between keeping people employed and keeping people safe.
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Pick n Pay Pick of the bunch
Amidst the crisis, Pick n Pay has released a tidy set of numbers, with turnover up +4.7% to R89.2bn and trading profit +8% to R3.1bn. This they attribute, inter alia, to greater operating efficiency, which mitigated operating challenges and escalating cost inflation, and also to a strong performance back home, which relieved the pressure from tough conditions elsewhere in Africa, notably Zimbabwe and Zambia. Among those efficiencies, if you’d like a peak under the operational bonnet, are better buying, range optimisation, less waste, supply chain efficiency, and cost discipline. Strategically, SmartShopper continues to deliver, as do Pick n Pay’s value-added services and their new focus on convenience formats and franchise stores. And Boxer Superstores remains a bright star in the Group firmament, with 12 new supermarkets, 15 new liquor stores, and major growth in private label.
Comment: For a more detailed look at these numbers and what they mean, have a look at our results summary here .
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Retail Property The malls have fears
There was a time when mall owners lived the sweet life. Throw up a large shed somewhere on a dusty scrap of veld, whack in a couple of fiberglass elephants, some travertine and a sign saying Shangri La, draft a couple of attractively exclusionary clauses for your anchor tenants and watch the moola roll in. Not any more, it seems. During the shutdown, for starters, some big retailers have said they won’t be paying rent while the malls remain closed, while others are offering only partial remuneration. And this on top of the difficulties malls were already experiencing in attracting and keeping tenants during a time of economic and political uncertainty. So much for before and during. What about after? “Even when the lockdown is lifted people will probably be uncomfortable about visiting public spaces,” says Keillen Ndlovu, Stanlib’s head of listed property funds. “That’s likely to impact negatively on our retail centres, more so given the oversupply of retail space combined with a lower economic outlook and job losses.”
Comment: The mall has been our town square for over a generation. It’s difficult to imagine what may come next. But that’s something we should probably start doing.
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International Retailers Swings and roundabouts
American carnage as iconic luxury retailer Neiman Marcus, home of the $1,200 sneaker and Italian suiting to match, files for bankruptcy in the US, accompanied down that dark road by preppy fashion chain J. Crew, where for some time now we have preferred to purchase our business casual. In the UK in the meantime, everything’s coming up roses for Tesco, who, they very much regret to report, cannot provide the delivery slots needed to fill all of the online orders they’re getting. Just last week, they reported, they filled online orders for 10 million items in one day for the first time. That said, they anticipate that their stores will continue to serve 80% of the market as traditional shopping retains the lion’s share of spend. Back across the pond, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon is looking to the future as the pandemic reveals certain truths about business. First up: grocery workers enjoy a newfound respect in the community. Whether this translates into bargaining power remains to be seen. Secondly, yay for the humble supply chain, in which people are taking a keener interest than they were before. Thirdly, omnichannel, once an overly-optimistic bit of trend presentation flim-flam, is now an actual thing. And finally, we really are in this together.
Comment: Nice one Doug. Lots to think about.
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IMPERIAL Logistics Empire building
At a time when other businesses are exercising caution, IMPERIAL Logistics is going all-in on the great continent of Africa – and even sees opportunities for the business during the pandemic. According to CEO Mohammed Akoojee, the business intends to double its business in the rest of Africa, whence it derived 25% of its revenue of R25.4bn and almost a third of its R1.6bn operating profit in the six months through last December. In particular, they’re combing the cities and savannahs for opportunities for acquisitions across various sectors, notably healthcare and FMCG. This after netting a handsome R3.6bn from the sale of its European shipping business. The stresses of COVID-19 might make more businesses open to outright acquisition, IMPERIAL’s preferred modus. The pandemic has already caused customers to demand more transparency and flexibility from the supply chain, which IMPERIAL is presumably positioned to provide.
Comment: The supply chain is the new terra incognita of innovation and efficiency. Go IMPERIAL.
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Pioneer Boldly going
A quick catch-up with Pioneer after its recent acquisition by PepsiCo for $1.7bn. All things considered, so far so good. They’re anticipating things to be a little shaky around the transition from maize stock from the old season with the new harvest yet to come in – but indications are that the new harvest is going to be a whopper. And there will be some understandable price inflation resulting from the travails of the dear old ZAR. So be that. But what we really wanted to get to was this, from CEO Tertius Carstens on the supply chain: “The system keeps going. It's actually incredible how quickly the system in general has responded to the circumstances and is staying operational. It speaks a lot to the enterprise of people and commitment of people to make it work, and the way we, government agencies and industry associations are working together is just on a different level. It's very positive.”
Comment: Indeed. There have been some bright spots in these early days of the crisis, and the efficiency of the supply chain has been one of them.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Economy A new world order
It’s all COVID-19 in the economy this week, and the news is, of course, not good. According to SARS, 20,000 people were retrenched in April, and this resulted in an under-recovery of R9bn in taxes for the month. With numbers like that, they are predicting R285bn less in taxes collected for the year. SARS are concerned that the pandemic will cause not just a downward trend in economic activity during the course of the illness, but a loss in economic capacity as businesses close, never to re-open. In Johannesburg in the meantime, a city that 19,000 dollar millionaires call home, mayor Geoff Makhubo has announced that one million people – about 300,000 households – already require food assistance. This in a context of where 45% of the city’s 5.5 million souls already lived in poverty and 20% were food insecure. Across the continent, while Africa has been spared the worst effects of the pandemic per se, for reasons (like the possible effects of the BCG vaccine) that are still under investigation, the economic fallout is potentially devastating, with growth predicted to decline -2.1% to -5.1% this year, and the AU estimating that 20 million people could lose their jobs.
Comment: A new economic order is not necessary or inevitable; it is already here. Africa needs to have a say in how it shakes out, and in the words of Mcebisi Jonas, “to imagine a world in which we all have a place at the table.”
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“If there’s an upside to the unprecedented uncertainty gripping the world right now, it’s that the economic fallout has opened up a new debate about the right sort of policy to have. It’s time to think creatively about what we can do and where we can take our country, continent and planet. It’s a time for new thinking, imagination and boldness.”