Trade Intelligence Logo

In a trading update for the year through February, Dis-Chem let it be known that Group revenue, excluding COVID-19 vaccines and testing, was up +9%, while HEPS – a reliable measure of profitability – were likely to increase a modest +16.5% to +19%. The Group may also, they said, be acquiring a 63,000m² DC in Gauteng for just north of half a bill, increasing its warehouse capacity by +75% on the back of several years of strong growth. In perhaps bigger news, Ivan Saltzman, who started the business with his wife Lynette in 1978, will step down as CEO end-June. He’ll stay on as an executive director and “an active member of the executive management team”. In typically cautious Dis-Chem style, CFO Rui Morais was announced as Saltzman’s replacement in August 2021. Nothing’s changed since then, and Morais will indeed take over as CEO come 1 July.

Comment: After nearly half a decade on the job, we’re sure Salzman will have thoughts at the dinner table about how things are being run in his absence – and rightly so.

Woolworths continues to power its delivery fleet with an exciting new energy source called ‘electricity’, which is intermittently available at various locations around South Africa. (Enough. Ed.) True, though: in partnership with DSV and Everlectric, Woolies has added 41 fully electric panel vans to its online delivery fleet to reduce its carbon footprint, promote sustainability in the retail industry, and, presumably, advance its Good Business Journey. The vans can do up to 300km per charge; currently the Woolies fleet does between 150km and 220km a day. Additionally, they come equipped with ‘live advanced telematics’, maximising their operational efficiencies, increasing their daily range, and remotely limiting power and speed to ensure driver safety. Annually, the vans have the potential to save over 400,000 kgs of tailpipe carbon emissions, since they will derive much of their power from DSV’s extensive solar infrastructure at its Gauteng and Cape Town facilities.

Comment: Sometimes we need to catch our breath and marvel at the pace at which the renewable revolution is moving.

There has been a veritable storm of commentary on Pick n Pay’s results, released last week, with analysts divided on what they portend, and Pick n Pay fighting a spirited rear-guard action against the critics. For example, the oft-quoted Casparus Treurnicht of Gryphon Asset Management, says Pick n Pay is not making enough progress with its Ekuseni strategy, and is failing to win back market share lost to Shoprite. Nedbankers Paul Steegers and Shaun Chauke say that Ekuseni, is a “credible” rebranding and store rollout strategy, and Pick n Pay points to the fact that shoppers are buying bigger baskets than last year, as well as bigger baskets in QualiSaves than in non-converted stores. “It’s confirming we’re on the right track,” says new(ish) CEO Pieter Boone. “A certain level of patience is required but there are enough green shoots to show we’re on the right path. You need to be agile and pragmatic to deal with a higher level of load shedding than when we approved the plan. We’ve said this is a transition year, we don’t expect a meaningful improvement in earnings.”

Comment: Clothing and Boxer were bright spots in the results, which did indeed point to a core Pick n Pay brand that needs to up its margins to deal with externalities like load shedding.

SPAR has informed the market that its recruitment process for a new CEO is “progressing well”, with a number of potential candidates interviewed, and Mike Bosman to continue in the position of executive chairman of the Group until the new CEO reveals herself. Or even himself. Moving on, Shoprite recently visited five schools in Canelands, KZN – home to one of the retailer’s largest DCs – to introduce Grade 11-12 learners to its bursary and skills development programmes, which disbursed R16m to support 206 students in the last financial year. They were also introduced to the Group’s Retail Readiness programme, an extensive retail skills and training programme which is aimed at enhancing the career options of South Africa’s unskilled and unemployed youth. Finally, to Clicks, which has announced a deal with popular Aussie nursery products brand Babyhood, which creates products that ‘grow’ with the littluns, using materials like European beechwood and organic cottons for greater sustainability. Extensive Babyhood collections are in Clicks Baby stores in Menlyn Park, Mall of Africa, Gateway and Canal Walk.

Comment: The baby war escalates, and Clicks brings in some heavy artillery.

News from the tangled web that is the globalised economy. In Japan, global investment outfit KKR has signed an agreement to purchase the entirety of the Rakuten Group’s stake in the Japanese supermarket chain Seiyu, increasing KKR’s holding from 65% to 85%. And in the US, a Japanese department and grocery store called Teso Life, which has opened nine stores since launching six years ago, has eight more in the works. Teso Life brings well-known Japanese brands and products stateside, including dry foods like nuts, confectionery, dried seafood, and Asian seasonings. The stores also feature select products from China. And in the UK, posh retailer Sainsbury’s has opened a flagship store in Hook, Hampshire, which it says will be the most energy-efficient supermarket anywhere, using 25% less power than its own previous most efficient store and half the energy of a similarly sized standard supermarket. It will practice such innovations as channelling air that escapes from fridges to other areas of the store that need cooling, 700 solar panels on the roof, and chillers with doors that will reduce energy demands by as much as 60%.

Comment: As we have often remarked, much of the work we need to do to bring our industry to carbon neutral may be achieved through efficiencies.

Want a spot of good news? Here we go: RFG Holdings, owner of Rhodes Foods and Bull Brands, has said in a trading update that it expects its headline earnings to rise by as much as +40% for the six months through March. This on the back of strong performances in both its regional and international businesses. The regional picture was brightened by a “marked turnaround in sales and profitability of the pie category”, where it has managed to pass some costs onto hungry punters, while internationally the impact of a weakening rand made good on profits. “I would not necessarily make the assumption that this is a read across for the rest of the food producing sector,” says the ever-sanguine Casparus Treurnicht of Gryphon Asset Management. “Especially since they also derive a fairly large relative proportion of their sales from overseas, where the [weak] rand might have played a big role in driving revenues.”

Comment: A solid business it seems, that has benefited in this uncertain ambit from both macro factors and the vagaries of local demand.

Growthpoint Properties has announced a major redevelopment project for its iconic Bayside Mall in Table View. The R352m project will introduce new retail choices, a revamped food court, improved shopper flows and better access to the centre – all with a refreshed, contemporary look across the mall. Poultry producer Quantum Foods says in a trading statement that it expects HEPS to drop 76%-87% for the six months through March, which is not as bad as it had been expecting in the face of higher input prices, load shedding, and a devastating outbreak of bird flu which cost the business R34m. Finally, to the rolling hills of KZN, where Tongaat Hulett, under business rescue since late 2022, has secured funding to continue business operations until the end of June. It’s also fighting a court battle against assorted producers and industry bodies to pay the more than R900m it owes to the SA Sugar Association in levies – costs which must now be borne by the rest of the industry.

Comment: The rolling disaster at Tongaat has impacted thousands of sugar producers and farmers large and small, and hundreds of thousands of lives.

We teamed up last week with our friends over at Chirp to get some ideas on what to do for Mother’s Day (and perhaps more importantly to establish for our clients what the shoppers were up to.) Where did the moms want them to go, for example, to make their thoughtful purchases? 63% of mothers thought that their kids should go to Woolies; 55% of thoughtful sons and daughters thought so too. Failing that, 41% of moms opted for Takealot; only 29% of kids did, preferring both Pick n Pay and Mr Price, both at 31%. 92% of respondents intended to buy a Mother’s Day gift for someone this year, while 8%, for whatever reasons, did not. 96% intended to celebrate Mother’s Day, leaving awkward silences at the luncheon tables of 4% of households by our rough calculations. And any specific ideas? A statistically significant minority of mothers would have been happy with cryptocurrency or a nice house. Instead, they were getting a lot of fragrance, some utensils, the ever-popular Simba Chips and in the case of one lucky lady, some new Nike tekkies.

Comment: Chirp is a provider of highly customisable surveys; Trade Intelligence is your go-to source for insights into South Africa’s FMCG retail and wholesale environment. Together, we make a great team. Just ask our moms.

Can we talk about literally anything other than load shedding? OK, not really. We need solutions, and fast, to mitigate its worst impacts right now, and to avoid the devastation to our businesses and our people if we go to Stage 16. But in the meantime, a glimmer of economic levity, as a massive drop in global oil prices portends a drop in the costs to South African companies and consumers of both diesel and petrol for the month of June – the former by around R1.20 per litre, the latter by as much as R1.60. This on fears of a recession in major global economies, which would drive down demand. Don’t expect it to last – OPEC will step in to squeeze supply. For the moment though, not even the weakness of the rand – nearing its worst ever level against the dollar on the decline of investor confidence in our economy – will reverse the unexpected windfall.

Comment: We can imagine a world without the distortions of the oil market. Perhaps our children’s children won’t have to.