Trade Tatler Newsletter

News from the FMCG retail industry – delivered fresh every week

THIS ISSUE: 26 March 2026

Tough targets for new Woolies CEO | The Loyalty Games

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We have a full bag of tricks in this week’s Trade Tatler, and it is our great pleasure to present them to you one by one. Our leading story is all about Woolworths and how it is incentivising its incoming CEO to take the business from good to exceptional in just five years. When it comes to the loyalty stakes, our FMCG retailers have done us proud, leading the way in the loyalty programmes that South Africans use most. Look out for news on Dis-Chem and the Salzmans, as well as a new roaming event at Makro. And we close off with news of the inflationary kind, although we fear that the happy story this month may no longer apply in the next. Chin up, and enjoy the read.

THIS ISSUE: 26 March 2026

Tough targets for new Woolies CEO | The Loyalty Games

Share

We have a full bag of tricks in this week’s Trade Tatler, and it is our great pleasure to present them to you one by one. Our leading story is all about Woolworths and how it is incentivising its incoming CEO to take the business from good to exceptional in just five years. When it comes to the loyalty stakes, our FMCG retailers have done us proud, leading the way in the loyalty programmes that South Africans use most. Look out for news on Dis-Chem and the Salzmans, as well as a new roaming event at Makro. And we close off with news of the inflationary kind, although we fear that the happy story this month may no longer apply in the next. Chin up, and enjoy the read.

THIS ISSUE: 26 March 2026

Share

Tough targets for new Woolies CEO | The Loyalty Games

We have a full bag of tricks in this week’s Trade Tatler, and it is our great pleasure to present them to you one by one. Our leading story is all about Woolworths and how it is incentivising its incoming CEO to take the business from good to exceptional in just five years. When it comes to the loyalty stakes, our FMCG retailers have done us proud, leading the way in the loyalty programmes that South Africans use most. Look out for news on Dis-Chem and the Salzmans, as well as a new roaming event at Makro. And we close off with news of the inflationary kind, although we fear that the happy story this month may no longer apply in the next. Chin up, and enjoy the read.

R100m

awaits new Woolies CEO if five-year targets are met

+435%

expected interim HEPS growth at Astral

80%

drop in production volumes at Oceana

+3%

Consumer Price Index (inflation) over Feb 2026

+12.2%

Meat inflation over Feb 2026

YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK

RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS

Woolworths

Who wants to be a millionaire?

The short version: Incoming WW CEO could receive massive performance bonus – but he must double the company’s value first

 

Well, well, what is this? Incoming Woolworths CEO, Sam Ngumeni, has been given one heck of a performance incentive. In what the business is calling an ‘Outperformance Share Award’, Mr N will receive a special ‘once-off’ bonus if certain targets are met over the next five years – stuff like doubling the current share price, growing the company’s earnings by 10% to 15% per year, and other metrics. Fair enough. But putting some figures behind the incentive shows the real magnitude of the task and the rewards at stake. The company has issued Ngumeni nearly 1 million Woolies shares, which will be kept in a safe place for five years. The shares are currently worth around R51 each (i.e. a total of around R50m). If the share price doubles by 2031… well, you do the math. Ok fine, we’ll do it for you… Mr Ngumeni becomes a 100-millionaire. How realistic is this to achieve? Pretty tough, TBH – some would prefer to call them “stretch goals” because it means that the company would have to do a lot better than it has done in the last five to 10 years. The last time Woolies’ share price was at R100 was back in 2015, and we don’t need to remind you just how much the world and our local FMCG landscape has changed since then. And as for the 10-15% growth in earnings? Well, over the last few years, Woolies’ earnings have been flat, if not declining. Calling this a tall order would be a gross understatement.

Source: Tatler Reporter 25/03/26

Ti Perspective: But as the father of our nation once said, “It always seems impossible until it’s done”. We wish Mr Ngubeni all the best – if no one else, his shareholders are rooting for him.

Loyalty

If you want loyalty, get a card

The short version: FMCG retailer loyalty programmes are the most popular in South Africa, with Checkers and Clicks coming out tops

 

The 10th Truth & BrandMapp Loyalty Whitepaper is out, which over the last 10 years has given us a view of which loyalty programmes South Africans engage with the most. This year, the study draws info from 30,000 “economically active” respondents (defined as those with a gross household income of R10,000 per month), as well as 6,000 “mass market” consumers (those earning less than R10,000 per month) who are digitally connected and use online services such as online banking and e-mail. The whitepaper looked at programmes from all industries (retail, financial services, fuel, travel, restaurants/QSRs, etc.), with our great industry coming out firmly on top, showing the dominance not just of retail loyalty programmes, but more specifically those in FMCG. The winners are:

Most used loyalty programme by the ‘economically active’ group:

1) Checkers Xtra Savings (with 79% of respondents using it) 

2) Clicks ClubCard (78%)

3) Pick n Pay Smart Shopper (68%)

Followed by Dis-Chem, SPAR, Woolworths and Shoprite, in that order. 

Most used loyalty programme by the ‘mass market’ group:

1) Clicks ClubCard (with 68% of respondents using it) 

2) Checkers Xtra Savings (62%)

3) Pick n Pay Smart Shopper (56%)

Followed by Shoprite, SPAR and Dis-Chem.

Unsurprisingly, retail loyalty programmes are used more by women than by men, and when considering the young‘uns, Clicks ClubCard comes out on top for 18- to 24-year-olds (73% of this group use it), followed by Checkers Xtra Savings (68%) and Pick n Pay Smart Shopper (53%). What benefits do users enjoy the most? Among the economically active, it’s cashback and points that can be used as cash, while for the mass market, cashbacks remain in the top spot, followed by birthday offers. What about the 18- to 24-year-olds? Educational courses and donations to charity come out on top, signalling the importance this group places on their employability and social causes.

Source: Tatler Reporter 25/03/26

Ti Perspective: According to the whitepaper, the average number of programmes used per consumer is 10.4 – although granted, this is most likely sign ups, and not active, regular use. With so many being used, can they be called ‘loyalty’ programmes then? At Ti we have a firm opinion on that, which will be shared when we release our SA Grocery Shopper report next week.

Retailers In Brief

Code of conduct

The short version: Pick n Pay receives African loyalty award | The Salzmans pull back from Dis-Chem (again) | Makro’s new ‘Bar Code’

 

Still on the topic of loyalty, Pick n Pay Smart Shopper has been named ‘Best Retail Loyalty Programme of the Year in Africa’ at the inaugural African Loyalty Awards. Backed by the African Loyalty Association, the awards celebrate impactful loyalty, with entries from East, West, Central and Southern Africa. ‘Best Partnership Programme of the Year’ also went to Pick n Pay, and bp, which have been collaborating on their fuel rewards partnership since 2018.

Still on the topic of shares (see Woolies story above), the Salzman family has taken yet another step back from the business it founded, Dis-Chem, with sons Dan and Mark Saltzman selling off a smallish portion of their shares – by smallish we mean R640million’s worth out of the R7billion they own. Dan and Mark do not sit on the board, nor do they work for the company. But more importantly for our story, perhaps, their father, Ivan, will step down as executive director in June and move to a non-executive director deputy chair role.

Finally, Makro is launching a new liquor tasting event known as ‘The Bar Code by Makro’, where customers will enjoy guided tastings and product showcases of the wine, spirits and beer available at Makro. ‘The Bar Code’ will be a roaming event held quarterly at select stores, with the first one taking place at Makro Riversands in Midrand this Saturday, 28 March. Doors open from 10am – because it’s happy hour somewhere in the world at that time, right?

Source: Business Day, 19/03/26, Tatler Reporter 25/03/26

International Retailers

Living on the edge

The short version: Competitor rules may change for Aldi and Lidl | Kroger and Albertsons still in court

 

There’s a grocery market regulation in the UK known as the ‘Controlled Land Order’ whereby businesses designated as “Large Grocery Retailers” (such as Tesco, Asda, Sainsburys, Morrisons, etc.) may not make use of restrictive land agreements to prevent competitors from opening in their vicinity. When the regulation came into effect in 2010, discounters Aldi and Lidl were not considered “large” enough for the regulation to apply to them. But things are very different 16 years on, prompting the body which regulates these things, the Competition and Markets Authority, to review the rules. Interested parties have until mid-April to comment, with the final verdict to be published in September this year. 

Over in the US, the merger divorce between supermarket giants Kroger and Albertsons continues to be a messy one. We take a step back to refresh our memories – following the failed merger between the two in December 2024, Albertsons filed a suit against Kroger, claiming that the latter did not use “best efforts” to get the deal signed and sealed, resulting in Albertsons losing the heaps of money it had spent to get the merger through. Over a year later, the suit is still ongoing, with the latest development that Albertsons has filed a subpoena to get former Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen on the stand to determine if he really did put a spanner in the works. McMullen, you may recall, resigned rather abruptly just a couple of months after the ill-fated merger collapsed, after an investigation found that he contravened the business’s ethics policy. The plot thickens…

Source: supermarket news.com 23/03/26, scotsman.com 23/03/26
live webinar

MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS

Manufacturers in Brief

Surf n turf

The short version: Mixed bag of trading updates from Astral and Oceana | Unilever in talks to sell food business

 

We start off our manufacturers section with a couple of trading updates from our local guys, in anticipation of their official interim announcements in May. First is Astral, which must be ecstatic to report that it expects HEPS growth of at least +435% come half year. The excellent results are thanks to an increase in demand for poultry products (perhaps aided by foot-and-mouth disease in beef), a recovery in selling prices after deflation seen in poultry through 2024, higher volumes in its feed division and lower input costs due to softer commodity prices. 

The opposite is true at Oceana, which is having a tougher time of it due to a drop in production and lower prices in its fishmeal and fish oil businesses. The lower availability of key species due to reduced landings led to an 80% drop in production volumes. Despite all this, Lucky Star was helped along by strong demand for tinned fish (FMD again?) and favourable input costs, including lower fuel prices. We’re probably not the only ones trembling at the thought of what may happen to those and the repercussions thereof.

Finally, big news from Unilever, which has released a (rather short) official statement regarding recent speculation in the media around the sale of its food business. The food giant has confirmed that it has “received an inbound offer for its Foods business” and is in talks with US spices, sauces and condiments company, McCormick. While Unilever was clear to state that “there can be no certainty that any transaction will be agreed,” the fact that it is considering the offer must count for something. Unilever has not made a secret of the fact that it is looking to transition from its broad consumer goods product portfolio to focus on higher margin beauty, ‌household and personal care products. Perhaps it is no longer a case of ‘if’ this may happen, but rather ‘when’.

Source: Tatler Reporter 25/03/26, Business Day 18/03/26, 23/03/26
Market Research

TRADE ENVIRONMENT

Inflation

Target practice

By Ti Retail Economist, Carey Leighton

The short version: Inflation only +3.0% for Feb 2026, but these low levels are not going to last

 

The Feb 2026 inflation (otherwise known as CPI, or the Consumer Price Index) results are out. At only +3.0%, this aligns with the SA Reserve Bank’s target. Why is it only +3.0%, (after Jan 2026: +3.5%)?: 

  • Housing and utilities CPI: +4.8%. While water and electricity remain high (+7.1% and +7.5% respectively), rent is largely contained at +3.5% (depending on type of dwelling)
  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages CPI: +3.7% (the lowest in 11 months). High meat inflation (+12.2%, due to the ongoing impact of foot-and-mouth disease, but down from +13.5% in Jan 2026), offset by deflation for a number of sub-categories, i.e. breads & cereals; milk, eggs & cheese; fruits; and vegetables
  • Another reason for the dip in inflation was the timing of the premium increases for some medical aids. Health insurance CPI was +6.4% in Feb 2026 (but +10.5% in Feb 2025). As the medical aid increases come into effect over the year, total inflation will increase
  • Of course, we have to talk about fuel. At the beginning of Feb 2026, the fuel price declined (petrol: -65c/l and diesel: -50c/l). Petrol and diesel prices remained lower than last year for Feb and Mar 2026, despite the uptick in petrol and diesel prices earlier this month
Source: Source: Stats SA | 25/03/26

Ti Perspective: March 2026 will see a marginal uptick in inflation, but after that, it’s anyone’s guess. The SA Reserve Bank has been meeting this week, and with the high levels of uncertainty, they have most likely been having tough conversations. An interest rate cut is likely off the table, despite the Q1 inflation result. With a knot in my stomach (and probably yours too), we wait for the fuel price announcement on 1 April – and hope with all our might that any major increase turns out to be a fool’s joke.

South Africa Economic

THE WEEKLY GURU

“The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance.”
Alan Watts

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