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South Africa’s 3rd Wave Has Not Yet Begun

  • The 3rd wave predicted for mid-April has not yet arrived. Resuming the vaccine roll out should trigger a lift in retail sales. Intermittent lockdowns continue to hurt the hospitality industry, however take-aways show signs of recovery, as consumers search for alternative indulgences
  • CPG growth for the end of March vs. last year appears muted, but this is due to the high levels of panic buying this time lastyear.

- Fewer social and trade restrictions this year drove high growth over Easter (beginning of April), however spending slowed by mid-month as wallets emptied
- Confectionery performed well as shoppers prepared for Easter and used the occasion to treat friends and family
- Pantry stocking happened the following week with shoppers buying frozen meat and commodities such as oil, maize
and rice
- Personal Care also benefited from concerns of a 3rd wave and growth was unusually high
- Alcohol continues to perform well during Lockdown level 1. Consumers had enough time to stock up before the Easter weekend sales ban and volumes for the week were not affected at a total level, although empty wallets after Easter indulgences resulted in lower spend for the rest of the month

  • Easter’s growth was driven by shoppers taking advantage of the relaxed social interaction guidelines and used the occasion to treat friends and family. This was evident across both high and low LSM groups
  • With the rapidly changing environment and shopper requirements, success lies in a quick response and the ability to adapt to meet these changes. Plant based foods, immune boosting and/or mood enhancing solutions, product transparency and sustainable solutions are predicted to impact shoppers buying decisions and consumption behaviour. Marketers need to position their brands accordingly and educate consumers on the measures they are taking to meet these needs

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