Level 1 lockdown continues

• SA COVID-19 cases are slowly starting to increase under Level 1 lockdown. Second waves and lockdowns across many other countries are prompting concerns that SA may follow suit
• Retailers and manufacturers looking to bolster sales are preparing to embrace the Black Friday and Christmas shopping seasons. Changes include social distancing in store, extended promotions and an even bigger focus on e-commerce
• Grocery, excl. Liquor & Tobacco, value growth is at 6.8% for the total lockdown period. September month-end week saw lower sales than LY, but higher October mid-month sales are driving the latest 4wk growth of 9.3% 
  • Staples have returned to strong performance with Wheat Flour, Dry Pasta, Sugar&Sweeteners, Rice and Soup&Stock all showing latest week growth levels amongst the highest since lockdown began. This follows a muted month-end. Soaps&Sanitiser, Household Cleaning and Wipes all follow a similar trend
  • Liquor’s initial boost after the ban was lifted was followed by an extended period of decline. October is seeing a pickup driven particularly by Wine and Spirits. Both LSM groups are moving their spend from Beer & Fabs to Wine
  • Tobacco’s initial sales boost, post the ban lift, was also followed by extended declines, however this category has not seen the same recent turn around visible in Liquor
  • Pet is showing growth of 4.8% during lockdown, possibly suggesting consumers took the opportunity to adopt new pets, as well as spending more time with existing animals. Dog and Other Pet growth is strong in both LSM groups, however Cat growth is predominantly in the higher LSMs
  • Private Label’s lockdown share is in line with its share prior to COVID-19 levels. Winners and losers are seen across categories and retailers, showing that both National and Private Label brands are relevant and important in the SA context
• IRI’s Marketing Mix methodology has been adjusted to identify and isolate the COVID-19 impact on sales, resulting in the most accurate forecast and delivering growth for clients

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